Obama victory will determine the new balance of power
Year
2012 turned out to be significant in some of the leading countries of
the world the election of leaders: in Russia, the US and China. If
the results of the presidential election on 4 March, 2012 in Russia
were predictable, the result of the presidential election in the United
States, which took place on November 6, became known only after the
completion of the vote count.
Barack Obama. Photo: Mark Wilson / Getty Images
In Communist China, of course, do not talk about the election, there
shall be appointed by the leaders of the political elite vote, but that
is another topic.
We want to present the opinion of one of the most authoritative
experts, Director of the Institute of USA and Canada Studies, Professor
Sergei Rogov of the proposed alignment of forces in the international
arena, on US-Russian relations, and much more.
What will change in the relationship between the US and Russia? When Obama won the election for the first time, Russian-American relations were in a state of severe crisis. Horns sure that if in 2008 defeated John McCain, no reboot there would be no US-Russian relations would get a very intense character. There would be no new treaty CHB (Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms), which was signed in 2010, there would be Russia's WTO accession would not have occurred changing the pitch of the Russian-American dialogue.
Achievements restart fairly well known, however, since last year, the process of Russian-American relations has stalled. At the forefront started out differences and disagreements. In the United States began a campaign of criticism rigid internal and foreign policy of the Russian Federation. The tone in this company asked Republicans, who said that Russia for the United States is a geopolitical enemy №1.
Obama's victory in the election means continuity of policy.
According to latest information, the Committee on Rules of the House of
Representatives on November 13 is going to consider a bill to repeal
the Jackson-Vanik amendment restricting trade with Russia.
The site of the Committee on Rules of Procedure states that a bill to
repeal the discriminatory amendment and the "Magnitsky Act" combined
into one document.
According to Sergei Rogov, "Magnitsky Act" was passed in order to find
any legislative instrument that would put Russia in its place. "Republicans in the House of Representatives approved its version of the" Magnitsky Act ", which is different from the Senate.
In the Senate version it comes to drawing up "black lists" and the
adoption of Senate sanctions against violators of human rights around
the world, and in the embodiment of the House of Representatives in
question only of Russia ", - said the head of the Institute of USA and
Canada.
He added that if after a few weeks of the House of Representatives will
take "Magnitsky Act", but did not repeal the Jackson -Venika, it would
mean quite serious consequences, we can expect a reaction from the
Russian side.
Sergei Rogov believes that early next year, the Obama administration has put forward a new agenda for US-Russian relations. He did not rule out that there will be issues related to the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in 2014.
Since neither Russia nor the United States are interested in to the
Taliban came to power, to Afghanistan again became a hotbed of radical
Islamic terrorism, it may be put forward proposals for deeper cuts in
nuclear weapons to the level of 1,000 warheads.
Arms reduction factor of 1.5 means that the Americans will seek to limit not only strategic nuclear weapons, but also tactical. Rogov argues that Russia's position will involve linking the issue of reducing nuclear weapons and missile defense.
He fears that the US missile defense program in the future will lead to
intercept Russian strategic ballistic missiles, which will lead to a
violation of the strategic balance.
If we manage to reach a compromise on missile defense, that in 2014
there will be new agreement as a legal and political nature.
He believes that the abolition of the Jackson-Vanik amendment and
Russia's WTO accession should contribute to the expansion of Russian-US
trade and investment processes.
Volume of US-Russian trade in the last year for the first time exceeded
40 billion US dollars, which is certainly less than trade with Europe
or China, but still looks impressive.
Obama's victory in this election means continuity of what has been done
in previous years, it will attempt to develop a new agenda, but Rogov
does not believe that Russia and the United States are to develop
serious crises in 2008.
US relations with the CIS countries
Americans are an active policy in the CIS countries.
Under Bush, this policy was characterized by the game with the
"zero-sum", attempts have been made to enhance the influence due to the
displacement of Russia, actively promoted the idea of acceptance into
NATO of Ukraine and Georgia.
The Obama administration is very calm reaction to the coming to power
in Ukraine Yanukovych after the departure of Yushchenko and Tymoshenko,
who enjoyed the support of the United States.
With regard to the adoption of Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, Rogov
believes that words, this idea will be proclaimed, but real steps to put
it into practice, will not be done.
On the Iranian issue, we could become allies
The Obama administration does not want to start a new war in the Middle East. According to Sergei Rogov, there are different opinions on this issue.
For example, Robert Gates, former US Secretary of Defense, said that to
stop Iran's nuclear program does not succeed, it can only drop a few
years, but if the use of military force, the Iranian nuclear program
would be military in nature. His role in this regard could play Israel. Option Israeli attack on Iran does not exclude Rogov. Although the current developments in Syria can play a moderating role for Israel. As a result of the civil war in Syria may come to power radical forces and established something like the Libyan regime. And this is for Israel far more serious threat than the Assad regime.
The Obama administration is interested in Russia to support a political solution to the Iranian nuclear issue.
He was confident that if the political decision is reached by excluding
Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, the Americans will not be a reason
for the deployment of strategic missile defense system in Europe. It links the Iranian problem with nuclear arms reduction, which will lead to a compromise on missile defense.
Obama ready to close their eyes on the internal situation in Russia to reach a compromise on arms?
Sergei Rogov believes it is unlikely that it can count on.
And the Obama administration and the Republicans, and Secretary Clinton
after the elections to the State Duma gave a pretty tough assessment of
what is happening in Russia. Therefore, he believes that "Magnitsky Act" is likely to be adopted.
The administration of President and key politicians understand that the
United States limited possibilities to influence the development of
internal political processes in Russia and China. Despite the fact remains that Obama for a second term, expect more of a change in government.
After the election, Hillary Clinton announced his resignation as
Secretary of State, because it wants to run for the presidency in 2016. Leaves US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, there will be other players.
Among the candidates for the post of Secretary of State have been named
US ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, as well as the candidacy of the
head of the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs John Kerry.
Horns do not think that if appoint Susan Rice, hot champion of human
rights in Syria and Libya, it will determine the diplomacy in its
relations with Russia and dramatically change its rhetoric.
Will America to negotiate with China?
In
connection with the advent of the new leadership in China, the new
balance of power in the United States will be very important. In the US, with a very very suspicious of the growing economic strength and modernization of the Chinese armed forces. They recognize the prospect of turning China into the second superpower.
In
America still happy that the Soviet Union disappeared, and the
emergence of approximately equal to the power of the opponent did not
please the Americans. Line of the Obama administration - a search for an agreement with China on American terms.
Mitt Romney has taken a harder line against the country. According to Rogoff, if he became president, the first day of the declared China a currency manipulator. After that he went to the use of serious economic sanctions against China.
In
connection with the ongoing advances in the Obama administration goes
soft rhetoric in relations with China, which took place in the past. This year, first used such language in official documents as "... a potential US adversaries such as Iran, China ...". In
the pre-election debates Romney bent his line against the Chinese as
enemies, but Obama spoke about China as a rival with which it is
necessary to negotiate.
There
are a number of problems between China and the United States, this
applies to Taiwan, Tibet, human rights violations and others. Looms
major changes in the military balance in China and the United States. Parity US made almost 50 years ago, no one doubts its military superiority. As for China and America, between them has never been a military parity. 60 years ago, America was at war with China in Korea and is no longer willing to fight with him in the ground war.
In China, and is now developing nuclear weapons, and conventional. He demonstrates his achievements in space and cyberspace, causing very great concern the United States. Many Republicans believe that it is time to start to contain China. Democrats
prefer not to rush, but agree that if the parties fail to agree, it
will be necessary to remove containment with China.
This year, the Pentagon announced that the center of gravity of the military policy is transferred to the Asia-Pacific region. Indeed, currently 8 of 14 US submarines are located in the Pacific Ocean. Whereas previously the majority of strategic forces was aimed at Russia, now - to China.
In relations between China and America, there is economic interdependence. According to Rogoff, these countries are in the field of mutual economic destruction.
Dependence is such that if we refuse to buy cheap Chinese goods and
Chinese loans to lose (and the US budget is largely financed by China
buying US government obligations), it will hit the US economy. And if China will not sell your product, what to do with accumulated US dollars? He is their only burn. This is a constraint that prevents drift towards confrontation.
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