GLOBAL Strategic Trends - Out to 2045 - a "WAR PLAN" . . . GLOBAL Strategic WAR PLANS . . .
INSIDER COMMENT about this program:
A Great Convergence is taking place that
WILL constitute a major phase change in the nature of science and
technology, with the greatest possible implication on global economies,
societies, and global cultures . . Many deceptive agendas have advanced
by the radically new capabilities to understand and to manipulate matter
that are associated with nanoscience and nanotechnology. What we have
known as being human is being altered and redefined . .
There are MANY redundant systems and
programs that were secretively developed and are now national and
international corporate government policies to transition the global
populations into technological societal upheaval . . As you know, the
covert use of inserting parallel systems, that replace traditional
systems, has long since reshaped our reality . . . These parallel
systems have been covertly and purposefully "deployed" upon the public
by international banking criminals, corrupt and paid-public-officials,
and many others, for the purpose of covert warfare, corporate profits,
eugenics (transhumanism) and mind control by using frequencies to
interface with the human brain for the optimal and maximum control of
mankind . . . In-order to reduce our resistance the air, water, food and
many consumer products have been deliberately poisoned with chemicals
while enriching the weaponized health industry. We find ourselves in
endless wars of aggression, destruction, torture and murder. Almost
every aspect of our perceived reality has been altered and redesigned.
We now live in a virtual reality of make believe . . We must educate
ourselves in-order to make different decisions based upon the knowledge
and understanding that we can no longer tolerate this dangerous corrupt
monetary and corporate construct that has deceived us!
So lets go over what we were NOT taught:
Per Senate Report 93-549 - We are the ENEMY; the Federal Reserve is NOT
Federal and has NO reserves - rather we have been fooled into using fiat
debt currency; the weather is controlled and weaponized for political
control and corporate profit and more; Our food supplies are poisoned;
our water has been poisoned; history has been rewritten; we have
weaponized health care; the media is propaganda; climate change aka
global warming is based upon false science; we do not prevent climate
change by reducing our Co2 emissions; fossil fuel is not where
petroleum comes from; Primary Water is why we DO NOT have a shortage of
water; our schools are indoctrination and disinformation government
programs; Sex education in elementary school is MKULTRA mind
control/wherein traumatized sexually exploited children become prey to
predators - and worse; Wireless frequency devices are weapons - a silent
weapons program of warfare turned on us, the people; thousands of
people are being targeted, hunted and tortured by directed energy
weapons and organized gang stalking networks; the U.S. Government is
controlled by corporations and bankers posing as a representative
government which it is not - in fact, the U.S. Government is a
corporation and does not serve the people; Our local city councils and
county boards are incorporated and do not work for us; all wars are
bankers wars; military men and women are cannon fodder for the war
games; Lawyers aka the BAR - British Accreditation Regency - falsely
lure clients into a judiciary system, wherein the clients believe
justice will be served, when in truth the courts work for the
advancement of the corrupt corporate government - as do the lawyers . . .
their is more, however, by understanding what was conveyed above you
will be able to comprehend The Global Strategic Trends Program a WAR
PLAN, and the urgency to get this information OUT to others . . .
The Global Strategic Trends Program exposes
the deliberate and large-scale manipulation of all inhabitants on
Earth! All political operations, scientific advancements, economic,
intelligence networks, material resources, the military, all physical
infrastructure; transportation, transit systems, buildings, pipes, power
grid, concrete, steel are being blended with cyber-infrastructure;
computer, networks and sensors in ways that are now emerging . . .There
have been many companies, corporations, universities, institutions,
corporate governments, corporate agencies, lawyers and international
bankers that have been aiding, funding and/or creating emerging
technologies that are reshaping the world as we have known it. . .
Organizations have come together to leverage the creation of these
critical emerging technologies. One focus is to re-build the world's
transportation,"civil" (rebuilding society), manufacturing and all other
infrastructure. .
This is an EXTREMELY disturbing and
dangerous global forecast and is a program of WAR. The war games are
based upon invented science, the use of silent weapon systems,
manufactured consensus, and double speak, all used to trick an
intentionally dumbed down citizenry. The invented and falsified science
of climate change is being sold as the foundation for economic and
environmental policy changes. This program is about the totalitarian
grip tightening on society that we have been warned about in many other
documents. This Global Trends Program is the desired war games playbook
to benchmark the outcomes of bringing in a NEW AGE of global governance
and recreating and defining what is human. As you know there have been
many that desire life extension, human enhancement, robotics with human
consciousness, and seeking to create controlled evolution of man . . .
This trends report out to 2045 is the guide book to control and harness
the essence of what it is to be human and transform and redefine what
being human is.
The Iron Mountain Report reveals the scheme
to intentionally use the ecology to create mass pollution - call it
Global Warming aka climate change and create the fear necessary to
maneuver us into accepting a manufactured climate crisis.
This Global Strategic Trends Program
illustrates the anticipated massive societal disruption from the rapid
technological changes.
ALL people, globally, are being victimized
by the invented false science of climate change that is the disguise for
creating a global "market" shift to amass NEW revenues for those few in
control . . . These programs are eliminating private property, or the
illusion thereof, and reducing the number of homes that will be left
after "retirement" of older homes and infrastructure that are
uneconomically feasible to bring up to current energy standards. These
energy standards are "required" to reduce YOUR Co2 emissions . . .
Let us be clear! Under these invented
energy standards, to reduce our Co2 emissions, all existing structures,
homes, apartments, condominiums, commercial, industrial, manufacturing,
county and federal buildings are noncompliant! All structures must
implement the energy efficiency standards to comply with the new energy
codes and ordinances. Our compliance will be enforced by issuance of
code violations to impose fines, penalties and restrictions.
We have been deceived and enslaved by lack
of knowledge or this program would not be advancing without resistance.
For Example - This report refers to fossil fuels - our petroleum does
not come from dead dinosaurs. This report refers to water scarcity -
when the Earth is the Water Planet and we have an abundance of water. .
This report refers to massive loss of life, land and food due to
worsening weather disasters resulting from climate change.
Geoengineering is the massive deliberate manipulation of the Earth's
climate . . that is climate change . .
We realize this information is harsh and
can be difficult - but given what we hope you already know, you will
likely find this valuable . . . and learn methods of NOT CONSENTING!
We recommend watching these YouTubes - "The
Age of Transitions", "Who is Running America and the CAP", "Water
Crisis Hoax", "Primary Water Explained", "Origins of Oil", "Water Wars
Stealing Water for Profit and Power", "Blasting Your City Council with
the TRUTH", "Kill - ARkStorm" and other YouTubes on www.StopTheCrime.net
channel . . . Note: At the end of the YouTubes there is recommended
reading and reference material. Also, listen to our radio program
archives from the Rense Radio Network which is posted on the home page
of www.StopTheCrime.net . . .
The program excerpts you about to read are
being launched upon unwitting global populations by means of stealth and
deception - NOW YOU KNOW!
With Knowledge We are NOT as Easily Deceived . . . Please Share This Far and Wide . . .
_______________________________________________This is a short clip exposing what is headed to your town . . . and illustrates an aspect of the coming enforcements . . .
DEBORAH TAVARES: NEW DRONE CELL TOWERS AND CODE ENFORCEMENT COMING TO YOUR HOUSE. - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7z6KCPm5i1Q
______________________________________________
GLOBAL Strategic Trends - Out to 2045 - a "WAR PLAN" . . . GLOBAL Strategic WAR PLANS . . .The link below is the entire report - we have pulled excerpts out - which are immediately below the link. .
We recommend scanning through the entire 202 page report - here:
The following pages are EXCERPTS from the above link:
"Our lives and the world we live in will almost certainly change over the next 30 years, with the impacts felt by all".
"Our lives and the world we live in will almost certainly change over the next 30 years, with the impacts felt by all".
Corruption and money
If unchallenged, corruption is likely to
continue to exacerbate global inequality and conflict. By 2045,
consistent attempts to curtail corrupt practices are likely to be made
by national governments, international governing institutions, the
private sector and non-state actors. Technology is highly likely to play
a significant role in both enabling and combating corruption.
Page 4-5
Age and gender imbalances (Young people disadvantaged by the elderly)
Age and gender imbalances (Young people disadvantaged by the elderly)
Imbalances across regions and countries are
likely to exacerbate existing political and social tensions. The global
median age is increasing (although the rate of increase is slower in
developing countries) with those aged 60 or over comprising the fastest
growing population age-group. Indeed, by 2045, 750 million people are
likely to be over 65 years old. For those countries with increasingly
elderly populations, requirements such as public pensions, health
services and long- term care are likely to be ever-more pressing –
priorities which could reduce defence spending in most affected
countries. Some developing countries do not provide welfare and will not
be directly affected by this trend. A declining working population
coupled with increasing welfare costs are likely to lead to the
retirement age increasing (as has happened in some developed countries).
For some governments, a rising welfare burden is likely to lead to them
re-evaluating how they provide social welfare.
In societies with an ageing working
population, older people are likely to hold an increased proportion of
positions with authority and influence which, if not managed
effectively, could disenfranchise the younger generation. Compounding
this, young people may feel frustrated at the increasing cost of
supporting a growing elderly population, particularly if they believe
they have been disadvantaged by their elders.
page 6
Migration
Migration
Migration is likely to increase or, at
least, remain constant. In 2005, 191 million people lived outside their
country of origin. Today there are 232 million (this figure already
"exceeds" our earlier assessment in the 4th edition of Global Strategic
Trends). Those countries attempting to limit immigration are likely to
be only partially successful. In preceding decades, migration has been
characterised by people moving from Asia and Africa to Northern America
and Europe.
During 2010-2050, the number of
international migrants to developed countries is likely to be about 96
million, whereas the excess of deaths over births is projected to be 33
million, implying total net growth. The main estimated net receivers of
migrants are likely to be the US, Canada, UK and Australia, while the
main estimated senders are Bangladesh, China, India and Mexico. Without
immigration, the population in most developed countries is highly likely
to reduce. Those developed countries that do see population growth,
therefore, will almost certainly see an increase in the size and
importance of their ethnic minority communities.
Page 7
Climate change is likely to drive some
people from areas that are particularly badly affected, although not
everyone who wishes to leave is likely to be able to do so. Millions of
people may be ‘trapped’ in vulnerable areas because of the high costs of
migration, unable to raise the capital needed for moving away.
A growing consumer class
A rapidly growing consumer class (those who
spend more than ten US dollars a day) will almost certainly be a key
driver of the global economy. By 2030, this group is likely to grow to
more than five billion from two billion today, while the proportion of
consumers who are European and North American is likely to shrink from
50% today to just 22%. Rapid growth in many Asian countries,
particularly China and India, is shifting the economic centre of gravity
south and east.
Page 13
There could be an increase in trafficking and slavery by 2045, although the trend may be mitigated by improved surveillance technology and international cooperation.
Defence and security implications
There could be an increase in trafficking and slavery by 2045, although the trend may be mitigated by improved surveillance technology and international cooperation.
Defence and security implications
■■ Many of the world’s defence and security organisations are likely to incorporate specific gender equality targets.
■■ Increasing numbers of women are likely
to have front-line combat roles in armed forces worldwide, mirrored by
growing number of females participating in armed resistance movements
and terrorist groups.
■■ Sexual violence will almost certainly
continue to be a feature of conflict and state violence. Used as a
weapon of war, sexual violence can be a significant factor in
instability. However, countries and their armed forces are likely to
face greater international scrutiny and legislation against such
activities.
Page 16
From rural to urban (Historic Buildings are Obsolete Infrastructure) . . .
From rural to urban (Historic Buildings are Obsolete Infrastructure) . . .
By 2045, the proportion of people living in
urban (city) areas is likely to have increased from a little over 50%
to around 70% of the world’s population. Urbanisation will probably
increase most rapidly in the developing world. Of the 23 cities expected
to have ten million or more inhabitants by 2015, are likely to be in
developing countries. The greatest increases in urbanisation are likely
to be in Asia, with between 250 and 300 million people likely to move
from rural to urban areas over the next 15 years in China alone.
Although those who remain in rural areas may experience "increased
isolation" as rural populations decline, technological advancements are
likely to enable better communication and remote working. Managed
successfully, urbanisation could stimulate economic growth. In part, due
to the exposure of new ideas and the accessibility of goods and
services, it may also act as a spur for civil activism and improve the
quality of life for many. While older cities are likely to have
established links to resources, new cities may enjoy an infrastructural
advantage – they will be able to build transport and communication
networks suitable for modern vehicles and ways of working, without the
constraints of historic buildings, narrow streets and obsolete
infrastructure.
By 2045, there are likely to be around 280
megacities (cities with more than 20 million inhabitants4). Many of
these could be agglomerations spanning administrative, and in some cases
national, boundaries thereby driving integration and changing
governance structures. Europe, for example, may have more than 20 major
agglomerations by 2045 – the German Ruhr region, much of the Netherlands
and Belgium could become a single gigantic urban area. The taxation
rights of some major cities could make them major regional or
international actors.
Urbanisation often results in increasing
requirements for energy (particularly electricity), which could be a
source of considerable tension unless it is provided in a sustainable
way. Once people have access to energy, they are likely to always expect
it. Some cities, in both developed and developing countries could fail
(for example, becoming bankrupt or seeing a breakdown in law and order) –
potentially becoming security issues. Correctly managed, though, urban
growth could generate greater prosperity and higher tax revenues,
potentially offsetting some of these more negative aspects.
Because of their concentrated populations,
when disasters (whether natural or man-made) strike cities, large
numbers of people are affected. Many of the biggest cities, a number of
which are vital to the global economy, are situated in coastal regions
which could face more extreme weather events and be vulnerable to rising
sea-levels. Furthermore, because of inadequate sanitation, slums could
be susceptible to communicable diseases – which could then spread
globally because of increased connectivity between cities.
Page 18
Water
Water
Even at current population levels, supply
of fresh water is, arguably, insufficient. Factors such as population
growth, increasing demand from industry and agriculture, and reliance on
unsustainable water sources (such as aquifers) are likely to mean that
many people may not have reliable access to adequate supplies of water. By 2045, global agricultural water consumption could increase by 19%, with global fresh water demands likely to grow by 55% in the same period. Estimates of those suffering from water shortages today vary between 450 million and more than 1.3 billion people. Without mitigation, by 2045 or sooner, around 3.9 billion people – over 40% of the world’s population – are likely to be experiencing water stress. This represents a significant increase on the estimated 2.6 billion people suffering water shortages in 2000.
many people may not have reliable access to adequate supplies of water. By 2045, global agricultural water consumption could increase by 19%, with global fresh water demands likely to grow by 55% in the same period. Estimates of those suffering from water shortages today vary between 450 million and more than 1.3 billion people. Without mitigation, by 2045 or sooner, around 3.9 billion people – over 40% of the world’s population – are likely to be experiencing water stress. This represents a significant increase on the estimated 2.6 billion people suffering water shortages in 2000.
The poorest people often have extremely
limited access to fresh water. Someone living in a slum may only be able
to access about five to ten litres daily, while a middle- or high-
income individual living in the same city may use about 50-150 litres
per day. An estimated 2.2 million people die every year from diseases
that cause diarrhoea because of inadequate water and sanitation. This is
still likely to be problematic by 2050, when 1.4 billion people (mainly
living in developing countries) are unlikely to have basic sanitation.
Efforts to improve safe water supply and health-care access have
succeeded in reducing deaths from diarrhoea, but these gains may be
thwarted as the number of people living in slums increases, while
environmental change places further stress on fresh water availability.
However, there continues to be advances in water desalinisation
technology, as well as activity to reduce water waste and improve water
utility. Improvements in waste treatment and purification technologies
offer hope that in the future more water could be reused or recycled.
A shortage of water could lead to countries
(and communities within them) diverting water for their benefit to the
detriment of others. Many water resources are shared by more than one
country – 263 river basins and 269 aquifers are shared by two or more
countries, and 21 rivers and four aquifers cross the boundaries of more
than five countries. As demand for water intensifies, it could lead to
conflict. Some experts argue that water scarcity drives closer
cooperation and, despite tensions, no modern state has ever declared war
on another solely over water. But there are a number of reasons why
violent conflict over water may occur by 2045 or sooner. For example,
global demand is likely to increase while supplies of fresh water
dwindle, yet water management issues are likely to become increasingly
complex. The effects of environmental and climate changes will also
probably become more severe in many locations, potentially outweighing
any beneficial consequences.
Page 22
Food
Food
By 2045, food production is predicted to
have increased by nearly 70%, to feed a larger and more demanding
population – and it is possible that demand could outstrip supply. Some
types of consumption are likely to grow particularly strongly. As
affluence grows in the developing world, the demand for more
protein-rich diets is also likely to increase. China, for example, has
seen meat consumption increase by 63% between 1985 and 2009, and this
trend seems likely to continue. Pollution and soil erosion are likely to
adversely affect agricultural land . . .
Growing use of nuclear energy raises the
possibility of fissile material being obtained by non-state actors as
well as states operating outside international laws, potentially causing
security threats.
Page 23
Growing US energy independence
Growing US energy independence
A key change to the global energy market by
2045 is likely to be growing US energy independence, driven by recently
adopted novel oil and shale gas production techniques such as
‘fracking’. If the current increases in production continue, the US
looks set to become the world’s number one oil producer by around 2020
and a net exporter by 2030,
Page 28
Resource protectionism
Resource protectionism
Increased demand for critical materials –
which could include oil and water – has seen governments adopt
protectionist measures to boost revenues and secure access to resources.
These practices are likely to endure out to 2045. Anti-competitive
behaviours such as expropriation of foreign companies, export
restrictions, cartel-pricing behaviour, ‘land acquisition’ or high
taxation are forms of resource nationalism designed to restrict
international supply. For example, potash (used in agriculture) is
increasingly subject to government-to-government trade deals rather than
being traded on the open market. Rising demand for, and concerns over,
access to rare earth elements could continue to motivate countries in
trying to develop or secure their own sources of supply, bypassing
international markets. While running out of these materials is unlikely
within the 2045 timeframe, reliability of supply could be an issue
because they are only mined in a very small number of countries (for
example, China produces 86% of all rare earth elements). If one of those
countries restricted supply, it would be likely to have a significant
impact on availability and price. However, such action is not without
its costs. Unpredictable and retro-active policy changes to protect
resources can, for example, lead to a drying up of foreign investment or
customers.
Page 29
Defence and security implications
■■ Competition over some resources is
likely to intensify and exacerbate existing political and security
tensions, potentially acting as a catalyst for intra-and inter-state
conflict.
■■ Demand for food may outstrip supply,
leading to a rise in costs. Food shortages could lead to sharp price
spikes, which could result in instability in those areas unable to
absorb the increase.
■■ Climate change could contribute to
increasing incidences of crop failure, potentially causing disruption to
global food supplies.
■■ Growing use of nuclear energy raises
the possibility of fissile material being obtained by non-state actors
as well as countries operating outside international laws, potentially
causing security threats.
■■ A reduced requirement for Middle
Eastern oil by the US, coupled with a shift in the Middle Eastern
markets toward Asia, could bring the US commitment to defence of Middle
East export routes into question. However, US involvement in the Arabian
Gulf is unlikely to alter significantly. But the US may look to other
countries, including China and the EU, to play a greater role in
security provision in the Middle East.
Page 30
A growing population will demand more food and water, increasing the strain on the environment out to 2045. As centres of population cluster in vulnerable areas such as coastal regions, the consequences of adverse weather are highly likely to be felt more keenly. By 2045, climate change is likely to have more noticeable effects. Without mitigation, rising sea levels will increase the risk of coastal flooding, particularly in regions affected by tropical cyclones. Droughts and heatwaves are also likely to increase in intensity, duration and frequency. Some of these events could precipitate natural disasters which, because of the interdependencies enabled by globalisation, may have consequences far beyond the site where the disaster occurs.
A growing population will demand more food and water, increasing the strain on the environment out to 2045. As centres of population cluster in vulnerable areas such as coastal regions, the consequences of adverse weather are highly likely to be felt more keenly. By 2045, climate change is likely to have more noticeable effects. Without mitigation, rising sea levels will increase the risk of coastal flooding, particularly in regions affected by tropical cyclones. Droughts and heatwaves are also likely to increase in intensity, duration and frequency. Some of these events could precipitate natural disasters which, because of the interdependencies enabled by globalisation, may have consequences far beyond the site where the disaster occurs.
People and the environment
Human activities are likely to continue to
have an impact on the environment. The processes of urbanisation,
deforestation, industrialisation, agriculture and fishing have damaged
the natural environment. By some estimates, pollution and soil erosion
have led to as much as 25% of available land being degraded. Similarly,
over-fishing and pollution have reduced the amount of food that can be
harvested from the oceans. However, more sustainable farming and fishing
methods and better industrial and urban practices could mitigate these
adverse effects.
Climate change
Inertia in the climate system means that
historic greenhouse gas emissions will almost certainly affect the
climate for the next few decades, regardless of any mitigating action
taken. By 2045, average global temperatures are likely to have increased
by approximately 1.4°C above levels recorded at the end of the 20th
century. Without concerted action, it is unlikely that it will be
possible to prevent global average temperatures rising more than 2°C
above pre-industrial levels. Although there may appear to have been no
significant increase in temperatures over the last 10-15 years, periods
of slow-down and speed-up in global temperature trends have occurred
before, and are likely to occur again. Energy which would usually
manifest as a rise in surface temperature is also being absorbed
elsewhere in the Earth system, primarily in the oceans. Observations of
ocean heat content and of sea-level rise re-enforce this conclusion.
Page 32
Without meaningful effort to secure global consensus on the scale of the problem and how it should be tackled, it will almost certainly be challenging to limit global temperature increases. By the end of the century, the Earth’s climate is likely to be substantially warmer and different from today’s. A large body of scientific evidence indicates that climate change is mostly being driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions particularly carbon dioxide (CO2) from generating poser. While the proportion of CO2 emitted by developing countries (particularly India and China) is likely to increase significantly out to 2045 without mitigating action, on a per capita basis, most developed countries’ emissions are likely to remain higher than those of most developing countries.
Without meaningful effort to secure global consensus on the scale of the problem and how it should be tackled, it will almost certainly be challenging to limit global temperature increases. By the end of the century, the Earth’s climate is likely to be substantially warmer and different from today’s. A large body of scientific evidence indicates that climate change is mostly being driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions particularly carbon dioxide (CO2) from generating poser. While the proportion of CO2 emitted by developing countries (particularly India and China) is likely to increase significantly out to 2045 without mitigating action, on a per capita basis, most developed countries’ emissions are likely to remain higher than those of most developing countries.
Abrupt events (or tipping points) such as
the failure of the Indian monsoon, changes in large-scale ocean
circulation (for example a weakening of the Gulf-stream), substantial
melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the release of large quantities
of methane from the ocean floor are possible. All could cause major
global disruption, although it is not possible to quantify the
likelihood of these events occurring by 2045. Heat waves and extremely
hot days are likely to become more frequent and intense, as are
droughts, while instances of extreme cold are likely to reduce. It is
also probable that instances of intense rainfall will increase and that
extra-tropical storms move pole-ward.
Historically, the flooding in Pakistan in
2010 displaced an estimated 20 million people, and damaged 1.6 million
homes. Similarly, some experts believe that a 2.5cm rise in sea levels
would displace 50 million people in the coastal regions of India. The
economic impact of extreme events is uncertain, but losses per event
from 1980-2010 ranged from a few billion US dollars (USD) to over US$
250 billion in 2005 following Hurricane Katrina. It seems likely that
developing countries will feel the economic impact of climate change
particularly sharply, as they are unlikely to have the resources to
mitigate its effects as successfully as more developed countries.
The Arctic is likely to see significant
change with the melting of sea-ice opening up new routes across the
Arctic Ocean during the summer months. Reduced summer sea-ice may
present opportunities as new trade routes and areas rich in natural
resources open up for exploitation. Thawing permafrost could make
transportation to and from Arctic oil and gas facilities problematic as
ice roads turn to marsh, particularly in Siberia. The softening of the
ground is likely to make new areas suitable for agriculture.
Page 33
Rising sea levels
Rising sea levels
Global sea-levels are likely to rise by
between 0.32–0.38 metres by 2050, although larger increases cannot be
ruled out. The effects of sea level rise will not be uniform across the
globe and there will be regional variations which affect the
vulnerability of certain coastal regions. Currently, between 270 and 310
million people are believed to be at risk of coastal flooding. By 2045,
a growing number of low-lying islands could be at risk of near total
submersion – displacing entire communities. Without measures to mitigate
and adapt to the effects of sea-level rises, by 2045 there could be
between 80 and 130 million more people at risk from flooding,
three-quarters of them in Asia.
Page 34
Around 20-30% of plant and animal species could be at high risk of extinction due to climate change . . .
Water
Future water stress is likely to be mainly
driven by socio-economic factors. The frequency, intensity and duration
of droughts in many parts of the world are likely to increase. Climate
change is likely to contribute to longer-term changes in water
availability, particularly in areas dependant on glacier melt-water. The
continued melting of glaciers could increase freshwater availability
out to 2045, but may bring with it an increased risk of localised
flooding. In the longer term, as glaciers melt, the inter-annual
reliability of the supply of water in glacial rivers will be affected.
Changing rainfall patterns may mean declining water availability for
some, and an excess for others.
Marine life
Marine ecosystems are expected to undergo
substantial change by 2045. For example, numerous studies suggest that
the increasing acidity of the ocean (due to greater absorption of carbon
dioxide) will have harmful consequences for calcifying organisms such
as coral reefs and many species of shellfish. Around inland and coastal
areas, changing patterns of freshwater runoff, droughts, floods,
increasing temperatures and rising sea levels could all have a
significant negative effect on fisheries and aquaculture. Inland
fisheries are particularly vulnerable to low water levels, changes in
spawning grounds, water extraction and modifications to river courses
(such as the construction of dams). Freshwater runoff could reduce the
salinity of seawater, adversely affecting fishing grounds and coral
reefs. Aquaculture depends heavily on adequate water exchange and is
vulnerable to temperature extremes and storm damage, particularly in
coastal areas.
Biodiversity
The impact of pollution, habitat
destruction and climate change will almost certainly have a profound
effect on wildlife. Some species are likely to adapt to the changes in
their environment but many may not be able to. More species will almost
inevitably become extinct, with the OECD’s projections indicating that
terrestrial biodiversity could decrease by up to 10% by 2050.20 The UN
assesses that biodiversity loss has been more rapid in the last 50 years
than in any other period in human history, a trend that some
commentators suggest shows no sign of slowing. Around 20-30% of plant
and animal species could be at high risk of extinction due to climate
change. Reduction in biodiversity decreases the natural environment’s
resilience when adapting to change, since genetic diversity is the raw
material for evolution.
A reduction in biodiversity could also lead
to the loss of organisms that keep pest and disease species in check.
There may also be significant economic consequences to biodiversity
loss, with some suggestions that the annual cost to the global economy
is between US$ 2bn and US$ 5bn. Reduction in biodiversity may also place
food supplies at risk. At present, four crops (rice, wheat, maize and
potato) provide more than 60% of global food energy. Relying so heavily
on such a small number of crops means that, if growing conditions change
(due to drought, increased temperatures or flooding, for example), we
may not have sufficient genetic variety to be able to breed crops to
cope with these environmental stresses.
Page 35
Agriculture
Agriculture
The impact of climate change on agriculture
is complex and region-dependent. Adverse impacts (for example,
heatwaves, droughts, storms and flooding) are expected across tropical
regions and much of the Mediterranean basin. Higher latitudes are likely
to experience a range of both positive and negative impacts (such as
changes in water availability, heat stress , increased growing seasons
and decreases in the occurrence of frost damage).
Indirect impacts of climate change –
wildfires, land degradation, pests and diseases, extreme rainfall and
sea- level rise – could have significant effects. For example, it is
currently estimated that each year 10-16% of the total global harvest is
lost to plant diseases, and climate change could increase this figure
by 2045. Nevertheless, a great deal of the world’s agricultural
potential is unused or under-used. If this ‘yield gap’ could be closed,
perhaps by technological improvements, GM crops and improved methods of
agriculture and farming, the trend towards a decrease in food production
could be slowed or reversed. Even using current technology, the
potential exists to increase production by up to 40%.
About 60% of the workforce in developing
countries (around 1.5 billion people) is employed in agriculture,
livestock, fisheries and tourism. While the proportion of people working
in these areas is expected to reduce (not least due to increased
urbanisation), many are still likely to depend on the health of the
natural environment for their livelihoods and may therefore be
particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and
environmental degradation. Degraded and threatened environments are
likely to lead to affected communities migrating – with potentially
destabilising consequences.
Page 38
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is likely to be the most important means by which climate change is managed – although out to 2045 it appears likely that the drivers of greenhouse gases will continue to increase. Inertia in the climate system means that warming would continue even if emissions were cut to zero tomorrow. Catching greenhouse gases before they are released into the atmosphere through techniques such as carbon capture and storage could play a vital role in reducing climate change – particularly while fossil fuels remain a major energy source. Although at an early stage of development, and with questions remaining about whether they could operate on a large scale, more advanced carbon capture technologies have the potential to convert carbon into useful products such as plastics. At a local level, constructing flood defences, altering agricultural practices in light of changing weather patterns and implementing water conservation measures are likely to be the primary means of adapting to the effects of climate change.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is likely to be the most important means by which climate change is managed – although out to 2045 it appears likely that the drivers of greenhouse gases will continue to increase. Inertia in the climate system means that warming would continue even if emissions were cut to zero tomorrow. Catching greenhouse gases before they are released into the atmosphere through techniques such as carbon capture and storage could play a vital role in reducing climate change – particularly while fossil fuels remain a major energy source. Although at an early stage of development, and with questions remaining about whether they could operate on a large scale, more advanced carbon capture technologies have the potential to convert carbon into useful products such as plastics. At a local level, constructing flood defences, altering agricultural practices in light of changing weather patterns and implementing water conservation measures are likely to be the primary means of adapting to the effects of climate change.
Page 57
Alongside privacy issues, it is also likely to become harder to go ‘off-line’. Those who do may even find that they have made themselves more conspicuous by their absence.
Alongside privacy issues, it is also likely to become harder to go ‘off-line’. Those who do may even find that they have made themselves more conspicuous by their absence.
Page 54
Information
Revolutionary advances in how we acquire, store and analyse information, together with dramatic increases in computer processing power, are likely to give us the ability to predict accurately a wide range of phenomena, from crime hot-spots to the effects of climate change. As everyday objects are increasingly connected to the Internet, this vast network of sensors is likely to gather data on more aspects of our lives and the environment, making it hard for anyone to go ‘off the grid’.
Information
Revolutionary advances in how we acquire, store and analyse information, together with dramatic increases in computer processing power, are likely to give us the ability to predict accurately a wide range of phenomena, from crime hot-spots to the effects of climate change. As everyday objects are increasingly connected to the Internet, this vast network of sensors is likely to gather data on more aspects of our lives and the environment, making it hard for anyone to go ‘off the grid’.
‘Big Data’
In 2000, 25% of the world’s information was
stored digitally: today it is more than 98%. On this trajectory, by
2045 there will be 20,000 times more digital information than there is
today. The ability to collect and analyse this growing volume of
information has been termed ‘Big Data’. Such a large amount of data
generates yet more information when appropriately analysed, allowing us
to identify patterns which may help to counter the spread of disease,
combat crime and even predict social and behavioural patterns.
Access to information has until now only
let us understand the past, leaving it to people to extrapolate and
imagine what this may mean for the future. Big Data is increasingly
allowing us to predict future behaviours accurately. Complex data sets
which contain crime records, meteorological data, and behavioural
heuristics are starting to be used to map probable crime locations3 –
and in the future they are likely to deliver far more sophisticated
forecasting tools. The advances in computation power mentioned
previously are likely to enable further analytical processes
development. This could provide the ability to model very large and
complex systems more accurately to make predictions in areas such as
climate change and population movements.
While Big Data could become important in
helping solve some complex global issues, businesses may also become
increasingly dependent on it – we are already seeing Big Data being used
to predict consumer behaviours. Accountability and situational
awareness are likely to increase too, as more aspects of life are
quantified and analysed. (StopTheCrime.net - Note: BIG META-DATA -
advancing to thought police, thought crimes - watch the movie Minority
Report)
Page 55
The ‘Internet of Things’
The ‘Internet of Things’
The number of devices linked to the
Internet is increasing rapidly, with everything from mobile phones to
cars and even fridges having an Internet connection. This ‘Internet of
Things’ is already a reality, with around 20 billion devices already
connected, rising to an estimated 40 billion by 2020. If that trajectory
were to continue, there would be around 100 billion devices connected
to the internet by 2045. However, increasing availability (not least
because they are becoming cheaper and smaller) is likely to lead to a
sharp increase in the number of connected devices, so that by 2045 there
could be around 50 trillion devices connected to the internet. These
devices are likely to be producing and sharing vast amounts of data and
information while connected to each other and to additional systems.
Such a large number of devices connected across the world will almost
certainly require a significant increase in communications
infrastructure. The costs and technical challenges involved are likely
to mean that there are some global disparities in access, at least in
the short to medium term.
Page 56
People in many parts of the world are used to having mobile phones and computers with Internet connections, but by 2045, it is likely that numerous objects will contain some kind of sensor. There will probably be ubiquitous, tiny and cheap monitors reporting on the quality of drinking water, detecting structural damage in buildings and vehicles, and sensing and measuring pollution in the environment. Machinery and consumer products are likely to be monitored for the state of their components and materials, enabling them to report when repair or replacement is necessary. With progress in nanotechnology, vast networks of security sensors could provide continuous monitoring of critical infrastructure (such as buildings, bridges and pipelines), detecting chemical and biological attacks. The fusion of data from a range of sensors, combined with inputs from public sources such as social networking sites, will probably improve profiling and tracking capabilities. Stealth vehicles are likely to find it more difficult to remain hidden and the ability to prosecute covert operations, particularly in urban environments, is likely to become more technically challenging. As the number of connected public sensors increases, the information advantage currently enjoyed by countries’ defence and security forces could be eroded or even reversed as adversaries, including non-state actors, attain similar levels of situational awareness.
People in many parts of the world are used to having mobile phones and computers with Internet connections, but by 2045, it is likely that numerous objects will contain some kind of sensor. There will probably be ubiquitous, tiny and cheap monitors reporting on the quality of drinking water, detecting structural damage in buildings and vehicles, and sensing and measuring pollution in the environment. Machinery and consumer products are likely to be monitored for the state of their components and materials, enabling them to report when repair or replacement is necessary. With progress in nanotechnology, vast networks of security sensors could provide continuous monitoring of critical infrastructure (such as buildings, bridges and pipelines), detecting chemical and biological attacks. The fusion of data from a range of sensors, combined with inputs from public sources such as social networking sites, will probably improve profiling and tracking capabilities. Stealth vehicles are likely to find it more difficult to remain hidden and the ability to prosecute covert operations, particularly in urban environments, is likely to become more technically challenging. As the number of connected public sensors increases, the information advantage currently enjoyed by countries’ defence and security forces could be eroded or even reversed as adversaries, including non-state actors, attain similar levels of situational awareness.
Page 58
The uptake of social networking sites and even the use of supermarket loyalty cards shows that – for comparatively small rewards – people are readily persuaded to record their movements, financial transactions and buying habits. This behaviour is highly likely to continue out to 2045.
The uptake of social networking sites and even the use of supermarket loyalty cards shows that – for comparatively small rewards – people are readily persuaded to record their movements, financial transactions and buying habits. This behaviour is highly likely to continue out to 2045.
Page 59
National Authorities are almost certain to seek to use this potential mine of information – a development that is likely to raise major privacy concerns. Marketing campaigns are likely to portray the benefits of smart technology and machine- to-machine interaction, but the increased surveillance capability may make others fear an increase of state control. In turn, this is likely to drive the growth of the ‘hactivist’ community characterised by groups such as Anonymous. However, it is likely to be increasingly difficult to avoid the sensor network of a future ‘Internet of Things’, since even remote environments are likely to contain some connected devices. A desire not to be part of the ‘Internet of Things’ may create new markets, for example a holiday resort advertising its facilities as literally ‘getting away from it all’ with a promise that you will be completely ‘off-grid’. This could also lead to a drive to try to create spaces, both physical and virtual, which are unseen or ungoverned by state authorities around the world.
Defence and security implications
National Authorities are almost certain to seek to use this potential mine of information – a development that is likely to raise major privacy concerns. Marketing campaigns are likely to portray the benefits of smart technology and machine- to-machine interaction, but the increased surveillance capability may make others fear an increase of state control. In turn, this is likely to drive the growth of the ‘hactivist’ community characterised by groups such as Anonymous. However, it is likely to be increasingly difficult to avoid the sensor network of a future ‘Internet of Things’, since even remote environments are likely to contain some connected devices. A desire not to be part of the ‘Internet of Things’ may create new markets, for example a holiday resort advertising its facilities as literally ‘getting away from it all’ with a promise that you will be completely ‘off-grid’. This could also lead to a drive to try to create spaces, both physical and virtual, which are unseen or ungoverned by state authorities around the world.
Defence and security implications
■■ Quantum computing could make all codes
‘crackable’ and genuine encryption impossible, as a quantum computer
could theoretically try every possible combination of codes
simultaneously to unlock a system. If this is the case, armed and
security forces may have to physically separate their computer systems
from the Internet, posing huge problems for networking and efficiency.
Alternatively quantum cryptography could guarantee security of a
message.
■■ Better gathering and analysis of data
could vastly improve our understanding of physical and virtual
environments. Predicting crime hotspots could enable more targeted
deployment of police officers. Greater awareness of deficits and
surpluses may make logistics more efficient. Similarly, detailed and
rapid analysis of social networks could provide a deeper understanding
of the local population, its culture and the environment.
■■ As more of our work and social
activities depend on interconnected information and communications
networks – which may, in places, be extremely vulnerable to attack –
there could be more opportunities for criminals and terrorists to have a
greater impact on our day-to-day lives. Similarly the ability to keep
secrets is likely to become increasingly difficult.
■■ Connectivity of assets with strategic
importance (such as those relating to national infrastructure) is likely
to increase. Although this is likely to lead to gains in efficiency, it
may also make such assets more vulnerable.
■■ An increasing number of devices capable
of collecting sensor data could intensify levels of surveillance.
Stealth vehicles may find it more difficult to remain hidden and the
ability to prosecute covert operations, especially in urban
environments, is likely to become more technically challenging. This is
particularly significant given the probable increase in the size of
urban areas, along with the growing use of surveillance to prevent
crime.
■■ As the number of connected ‘public’
sensors increases, the information advantage currently enjoyed by
countries’ defence and security forces could be eroded or even reversed
as adversaries, including non-state actors, attain similar levels of
situational awareness.
Education
Page 63
Institutions in Europe, Northern America
and Australia may increasingly run their highest quality programmes from
campuses in developing countries, as well as introducing more
distance-learning courses. As more people learn outside their country of
origin, and migrate to pursue careers, it is likely that there will be a
drive to "standardise qualifications" at the global level. Even if a
common global curriculum is not universally of a common global system.
Across the developed world, many schools are likely to be increasingly
run (or at least sponsored) by powerful corporate organisations.
Access to education could also become more polarised, depending on wealth or ability to pay. Students may be separated into vocational and academic streams from a young age. As corporate involvement in education grows it may encourage children’s entry to one or other stream at even earlier ages, as corporations and organisations (including the armed forces) seek to identify – and train accordingly – the strongest future performers.
Access to education could also become more polarised, depending on wealth or ability to pay. Students may be separated into vocational and academic streams from a young age. As corporate involvement in education grows it may encourage children’s entry to one or other stream at even earlier ages, as corporations and organisations (including the armed forces) seek to identify – and train accordingly – the strongest future performers.
Page 64
Machines, jobs and education
Machines are likely to take over certain
jobs from people, with developments in artificial intelligence
ultimately meaning that education could focus on those (few) areas of
human thought and activity that machines are unable to deliver
efficiently. This means that education may play an important role in
enhancing people’s ability to develop new ideas, to interact
empathetically with other people and to take responsibility – all things
that it is difficult to envisage machines doing by 2045.
Defence and security implications
■■ Global education levels are likely to
increase, but educational inequalities will probably persist,
entrenching social discontentment and allowing youth disaffection to
continue.
■■ In the new education and training mix
facilitated by employers, online and virtual blended learning are likely
to predominate, though formal face-to-face learning is unlikely to die
out completely.
■■ Some countries may begin to educate and
train children assessed as having the potential to succeed in specific
careers (including in the armed forces) from a very young age.t1
Page 67
Robots or ‘unmanned systems’ – machines
capable of carrying out complex tasks without directly involving a human
operator – are likely to be as ubiquitous in 2045 as computers are
today. Unmanned systems are increasingly likely to replace people in the
workplace, carrying out tasks with increased effectiveness and
efficiency, while reducing risk to humans. This could ultimately lead to
mass unemployment and social unrest.
As robots become more lifelike, perhaps capable of appearing to express emotion, interactions with people are likely to become more sophisticated. The increased capability of robots is likely to change the face of warfare, with the possibility that some countries may replace potentially large numbers of soldiers, sailors and airmen with robots by 2045. However, military decision-making is likely to remain the remit of humans for ethical reasons, at least in western countries. Others may not be so willing to make the same trade-offs between speed and accountability.
As robots become more lifelike, perhaps capable of appearing to express emotion, interactions with people are likely to become more sophisticated. The increased capability of robots is likely to change the face of warfare, with the possibility that some countries may replace potentially large numbers of soldiers, sailors and airmen with robots by 2045. However, military decision-making is likely to remain the remit of humans for ethical reasons, at least in western countries. Others may not be so willing to make the same trade-offs between speed and accountability.
The proportion of older workers in the
global labour force is likely to increase out to 2045, with a possible
corresponding "decrease" in opportunities for younger people. Flexible
working practices are likely to become more widespread, with people
employed on shorter-term contracts and a growth in working remotely.
Workers will probably have less predictable income and increasing
economic insecurity. By 2045, there is likely to be greater equality
between men and women in the jobs market, particularly in the developed
countries. In part, this may be driven by a global shift away from
manual labour, towards a more knowledge-based economy.
By 2045, it is even possible that robots will take on combat roles.
Automation and Work
Page 68
Page 68
Development in robotics may mean that robots are almost physically indistinguishable from human beings . . .
Global manufacturing is currently evolving from a highly labour-intensive process towards more information technology- based processes. This is, in places, driving
a trend towards manufacturing processes relocating closer to their consumers, to avoid long supply chains. This could affect the balance of manufacturing in the developed and developing world, with less need for conventional manufacturing jobs in many regions. Automation already facilitates this trend, and we expect to see additive manufacturing (more commonly known as ‘3-D printing’) also making a significant contribution. Additive manufacturing has the potential to transform the manufacturing industry, with performance and cost- effectiveness rapidly improving to the point where large-scale adoption for manufacturers is plausible well within the 2045 timeframe. 3-D printing enables on-demand production, allowing items to be created quickly when an order is placed, rather than large amounts of costly stock having to be held in readiness for prolonged periods. With more decentralised production, products could be designed and printed for local consumption, potentially reducing reliance on expensive imports and requiring less industrial infrastructure than conventional manufacturing. It is also likely that personal use of 3-D printers will increase rapidly, allowing for unprecedented levels of mass customisation and even the ‘democratisation’ of manufacturing, as consumers and entrepreneurs begin to print their own products. By 2045, additive manufacturing systems could be a common feature in the home and be capable of producing a wide range of outputs – food, clothing, and even complex devices with mechanical and electronic components.
Global manufacturing is currently evolving from a highly labour-intensive process towards more information technology- based processes. This is, in places, driving
a trend towards manufacturing processes relocating closer to their consumers, to avoid long supply chains. This could affect the balance of manufacturing in the developed and developing world, with less need for conventional manufacturing jobs in many regions. Automation already facilitates this trend, and we expect to see additive manufacturing (more commonly known as ‘3-D printing’) also making a significant contribution. Additive manufacturing has the potential to transform the manufacturing industry, with performance and cost- effectiveness rapidly improving to the point where large-scale adoption for manufacturers is plausible well within the 2045 timeframe. 3-D printing enables on-demand production, allowing items to be created quickly when an order is placed, rather than large amounts of costly stock having to be held in readiness for prolonged periods. With more decentralised production, products could be designed and printed for local consumption, potentially reducing reliance on expensive imports and requiring less industrial infrastructure than conventional manufacturing. It is also likely that personal use of 3-D printers will increase rapidly, allowing for unprecedented levels of mass customisation and even the ‘democratisation’ of manufacturing, as consumers and entrepreneurs begin to print their own products. By 2045, additive manufacturing systems could be a common feature in the home and be capable of producing a wide range of outputs – food, clothing, and even complex devices with mechanical and electronic components.
Page 69
As robots become more sophisticated, taking on a wider range of responsibilities, novel legal questions will almost certainly emerge. For example, when robots malfunction, is it the owner, manufacturer or programmer who is responsible? Does a robot with biological components have rights? Changes to legislation will almost certainly be required, but past experience suggests it is highly likely that legislation will fail to keep up with the speed of technological developments.
As robots become more sophisticated, taking on a wider range of responsibilities, novel legal questions will almost certainly emerge. For example, when robots malfunction, is it the owner, manufacturer or programmer who is responsible? Does a robot with biological components have rights? Changes to legislation will almost certainly be required, but past experience suggests it is highly likely that legislation will fail to keep up with the speed of technological developments.
Page 51
Maritime choke point
By 2045, sea lanes are likely to continue
to play a major role in the global economy, despite probable advances in
additive manufacturing and improvements to air and land based
transport. On current forecasts, the tonnage of goods transported by sea
is likely to double within the next 30 years. Anticipated growth in
computing power, situational awareness and automation could mean that
the shipping of goods will be quicker, cheaper and more reliable.
Shipping is also likely to be safer than ever before, driven by more
accurate long-range weather forecasts and improved ship construction and
operating procedures. As such, a significant amount of the world’s
economy would depend upon maritime trade - some countries could face
major financial crises if sea transport became significantly disrupted.
If tensions rose between countries near to a
vital maritime choke point, particularly if threats to block the sea
lane were made, the international community would almost certainly act.
Countries that are likely to be highly internationally active by 2045
(such as Brazil, China and the US) could be expected to work together to
try and find a resolution. Should diplomatic efforts fail to reduce
tensions, the international community could approve the deployment of an
international naval task force to ensure that key sea lanes were kept
open. Land-based international observers could be deployed to those
countries bordering the choke point and air, cyber and space
surveillance of the region is likely to be intensified.
Page 45
Defence and security implications
■■ Antimicrobial-resistant infection could significantly increase medical risk on military operations.
■■ Novel medical and surgical interventions will almost certainly improve casualties’ survival, and recovery rates.
■■ Advances that allow patients to
interact with their prosthetics and other aids are likely to lead to new
ways to connect the able-bodied to machines and computers.
■■ Some countries (and individuals) are
likely to use advanced medical techniques, such as genetic modification,
to gain a competitive advantage. Others will probably constrain their
development for ethical reasons.
Drug and treatment delivery
In 2001, the first camera pill was approved
by the US Federal Drug Administration for diagnostic applications.
Seven years later, a pill capable of being electronically programmed to
control medicine delivery according to a pre-defined drug release
profile was ready for serial manufacturing, and being used as a research
and development tool. Current advances have produced a pill which can
monitor the patient, communicate with external diagnostic systems and
respond to instruction for the targeted delivery of drugs within the
digestive tract. The next evolution will probably see further
integration of monitoring and drug delivery, with automated diagnostic
and response systems. As technology advances, the size of devices is
likely to be reduced while retaining the same capability. It seems
probable, therefore, that there will be future medical devices small
enough to travel in the bloodstream.
Page 43
As we live longer, different types of diseases, such as dementia, are likely to become more prevalent. Current estimates indicate 35.6 million people worldwide are living with dementia. This is likely to double by 2030 and more than triple by 2050 if no treatment is found. Dementia is a costly condition.
As we live longer, different types of diseases, such as dementia, are likely to become more prevalent. Current estimates indicate 35.6 million people worldwide are living with dementia. This is likely to double by 2030 and more than triple by 2050 if no treatment is found. Dementia is a costly condition.
Page 44
Mental health conditions are the leading cause of healthy years lost worldwide.
Mental health
Mental health
The global cost of mental health conditions
in 2010 was estimated at US$ 2.5 trillion. This is likely to more than
double to US$ 6.0 trillion by 2030. Of these costs, 65% are incurred by
developed countries and this is not expected to change over the next 20
years. By disease, mental illness accounted for the largest share of the
global economic burden in 2010 and is likely to in 2030, just slightly
more than cardiovascular diseases (followed by cancer, chronic
respiratory disease and diabetes). Mental health conditions are the
leading cause of healthy life years lost worldwide and account for 37%
of the healthy life years lost from non-communicable diseases.
Page 41
Obesity
Were obesity to be considered a disease, there would arguably already be a global obesity pandemic. By 2008, an estimated 1.5 billion adults globally were overweight and 500 million adults were obese. An estimated 170 million children globally were also classified as overweight or obese. This includes more than 25% of all children in some countries – more than double the proportions from the start of the global rise in obesity in the 1970s. Unlike other major causes of preventable death and disability, such as tobacco use, injuries and infectious diseases, there are no examples of populations in which rising obesity has been reversed by public health measures.
Were obesity to be considered a disease, there would arguably already be a global obesity pandemic. By 2008, an estimated 1.5 billion adults globally were overweight and 500 million adults were obese. An estimated 170 million children globally were also classified as overweight or obese. This includes more than 25% of all children in some countries – more than double the proportions from the start of the global rise in obesity in the 1970s. Unlike other major causes of preventable death and disability, such as tobacco use, injuries and infectious diseases, there are no examples of populations in which rising obesity has been reversed by public health measures.
The increases in obesity in adults are
widely projected to continue to rise in the next 10 to 20 years.
PageDevelopments in technology are likely to lead to significant
improvements in medicine and health, such as the potential fordeveloping
cures for
Page 39
GEOENGINEERING
Theoretically plausible geoengineering
methods (intentional, large-scale activities intended to counteract
aspects of climate change) have been proposed for a number of years.
Detailed studies on the environmental implications of different
geoengineering activities have recently begun to appear, but large-scale
testing and implementation of such methods has not occurred - in some
cases due to public opposition. One theoretical "solar" not occurred –
in some cases due to pub radiation management’ technique would aim to
disperse sulphates into the upper atmosphere, reflecting the sun’s rays
back out to space, producing a cooling effect. However, as with most
geoengineering techniques, there are questions about how to maintain the
intervention, and minimise the potentially harmful side-effects. For
example, it is not known what the long- term effects of dispersing large
quantities of sulphates into the atmosphere would be. Over-reliance on
particular geoengineering technology to mitigate the effects of climate
change could also render users vulnerable radiation management’
technique would aim to disperse sulphates into the upper atmosphere,
reflecting the sun’s rays back out to space, producing a cooling effect.
However, as with most geoengineering techniques, there are questions
about how to maintain the intervention, and minimise the potentially
harmful side-effects. For example, it is not known what the long- term
effects of dispersing large quantities of sulphates into the atmosphere
would be. Over-reliance on particular geoengineering technology to
mitigate the effects of climate change could also render users
vulnerable to catastrophic effects if equipment failed or was sabotaged.
It is not clear therefore what, if any, role geoengineering will play
by 2045 in countering the effects of climate change, and the extent to
which it could heighten international tensions.
Defence and security implications
■■ Extreme weather events, such as
flooding and droughts, are likely to increase in both frequency and
intensity in a number of regions. Extreme events will almost certainly
continue to cause widespread damage and loss of life, although our
warning mechanisms, defences and ability to respond may also improve in
the same timeframe.
■■ Reductions in the extent of summer
Arctic sea-ice could open up new shipping routes during the summer
months and boost economic growth in the region – increasing its
strategic significance for many countries.
■■ Degraded and threatened environments
are likely to lead to affected communities migrating – with potentially
destabilising consequences.
■■ Armed and security forces, both at home
and abroad, are likely to be more frequently tasked with providing
humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, perhaps supporting
indigenous responders.
■■ Without mitigation measures such as
carbon capture and storage, continued reliance on coal and hydrocarbons
for the majority of energy demand may exacerbate climate change and its
knock-on effects.
Page 27
page54image2048
Material
page54image2048
Material
Potential applications
Miniaturisation
DNA nanotechnology to fabricate nano-scale devices.
The self-assembly mechanism of DNA could be harnessed to fabricate mechanical, electrical and optical devices
and circuits that may be ten times smaller than current technology allows.
and circuits that may be ten times smaller than current technology allows.
Significant expansion of the capabilities
of computers, such as improved processing power; better ability to
synthesise materials by design; the development of advanced therapeutic
and drug delivery systems; and ultimately, the development of nanobots.
New developments in piezoelectric materials (materials that turn kinetic energy into electrical energy) could allow devices without batteries to run on power harvested from vibrations and operate at more extreme temperatures.
Constructing devices able to operate in
normally unreachable or unsafe locations, such as the monitoring
environmental conditions in places too dangerous for humans.
Replacements for traditional materials
Micro-alloys such as palladium-based metallic glass with a strength and toughness greater than any known material.
May be used in small-scale components, leading to better- constructed aircraft and spacecraft.
Graphene paper. Flexible and inexpensive to produce, and around ten times stronger than steel.
Replacements for a range of conventional
and existing composite structural materials, far stronger than those
available today. Could also support miniaturisation and sensors with
greater sensitivity and accuracy.
Responsive materials
Magnetic shape-memory alloys. Materials that change shape and mechanical properties when a magnetic field is applied.
Ultra-efficient engine valves that open and
close automatically; positioning tools for microsurgical procedures;
sensors for detecting environmental contaminants; and less toxic
batteries. Applications likely to be limited to a small scale, due to
the challenge of integrating the required high magnetic field actuation
system.
Self-repairing metal. Metal that responds to damage by ‘healing’ itself, such as nickel super-alloys with designed- in defects that allow cracks to repair themselves under normal loading conditions.
Better structural materials that could be used in turbine blades, giving better resistance to fatigue.
Information-providing protective coatings. Chemical reactions that are triggered by various failure mechanisms, resulting in a change of visual appearance to indicate when maintenance or repair is required.
Active corrosion protection systems;
coatings which indicate exposure to chemical or biological agents;
coatings which indicate aging.
Metamaterials
Artificial materials engineered to exhibit properties that only rarely occur naturally
Nanospheres. A transparent material made of self- assembling nanospheres that is the stiffest organic material ever created, surpassing the properties of stainless steel and even Kevlar.
Revolutionary improvements in body armour,
with the potential for new ways to customise products, such as printed
body armour. A component for strengthening existing metals and
composites; creating medical implants.
Ultra-lightweight and ultra-absorbent
materials such as highly-porous carbon constructs one-sixth the density
of air and highly absorbent.
Current materials used for cleaning up oil
spills absorb around ten times their weight in oil, but new materials
show potential to handle 900 times their weight in oil with very high
rates of absorption. Capture and transport aerosols such as pollutants
and water vapour.
Jelly-forming polymers so effective that a kilogramme of the compound could turn the water within an Olympic-sized swimming pool into jelly.
Treating wounds; altering or denying access to waterways.
Programmable matter. Materials that can be
programmed to alter themselves at the molecular level into various
shapes and then disassemble to form entirely new ones.
Compounds that can reform the shape of components
in real-time, similar to holograms, could allow the remote projection of a replica of a person or object, or enable robots to change size (and perhaps even state of matter) to navigate narrow passages or around obstacles.
_______________________________________________________________________________in real-time, similar to holograms, could allow the remote projection of a replica of a person or object, or enable robots to change size (and perhaps even state of matter) to navigate narrow passages or around obstacles.
We have inserted the Conflict MAP below from an earlier edition of the Global Strategic Trends Program 2007 - 2035 . .
GLOBAL STRATEGIC TRENDS PROGRAMME: 2007-2036 . . .
Strategic Trends is an independent view of
the future produced by the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre
(DCDC), a Directorate General within the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MOD).
It is a source document for the development of UK Defence Policy.
This edition of Strategic Trends is
benchmarked at December 2006. It is a live document and will be updated
regularly on our website as new thinking emerges and trends develop.
‘I have but one lamp by which my feet are guided, and that is the lamp of experience. I know no way of judging the future, but by the past’.
‘People who worry about problems that
others are not worrying about are irritating and are disparaged after
the event. People who were right when others were wrong are even more
irritating’.
We believe that the future will happen as a
result of long-wave themes and developments that unite the past, the
present and the future.
Rapid medical advancements
A game-changing medical breakthrough, similar in impact to
the discovery and mass-production
of antibiotics, could significantly
extend the human lifespan and dramatically reduce the incidence of non-communicable diseases such as cancers. Initially, this breakthrough would probably only be available
to the very rich, exacerbating social tensions. As the treatment became accessible to everyone, there would be a significant impact on populations, as life span dramatically increased. Without mitigating action, there could be a subsequent unsustainable increase in demand for food, water and housing.
the discovery and mass-production
of antibiotics, could significantly
extend the human lifespan and dramatically reduce the incidence of non-communicable diseases such as cancers. Initially, this breakthrough would probably only be available
to the very rich, exacerbating social tensions. As the treatment became accessible to everyone, there would be a significant impact on populations, as life span dramatically increased. Without mitigating action, there could be a subsequent unsustainable increase in demand for food, water and housing.
Shock:
Rapid medical advancements
A game-changing medical breakthrough, similar in impact to
the discovery and mass-production
of antibiotics, could significantly
extend the human lifespan and dramatically reduce the incidence of non-communicable diseases such as cancers. Initially, this breakthrough would probably only be available
to the very rich, exacerbating social tensions. As the treatment became accessible to everyone, there would be a significant impact on populations, as life span dramatically increased. Without mitigating action, there could be a subsequent unsustainable increase in demand for food, water and housing.
the discovery and mass-production
of antibiotics, could significantly
extend the human lifespan and dramatically reduce the incidence of non-communicable diseases such as cancers. Initially, this breakthrough would probably only be available
to the very rich, exacerbating social tensions. As the treatment became accessible to everyone, there would be a significant impact on populations, as life span dramatically increased. Without mitigating action, there could be a subsequent unsustainable increase in demand for food, water and housing.
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