Obama victory will determine the new balance of power
Year 2012 turned out to be significant in some of the leading countries of the world the election of leaders: in Russia, the US and China. If the results of the presidential election on 4 March, 2012 in Russia were predictable, the result of the presidential election in the United States, which took place on November 6, became known only after the completion of the vote count.
Barack Obama. Photo: Mark Wilson / Getty Images
In Communist China, of course, do not talk about the election, there shall be appointed by the leaders of the political elite vote, but that is another topic.
We want to present the opinion of one of the most authoritative experts, Director of the Institute of USA and Canada Studies, Professor Sergei Rogov of the proposed alignment of forces in the international arena, on US-Russian relations, and much more.What will change in the relationship between the US and Russia?
When Obama won the election for the first time, Russian-American relations were in a state of severe crisis. Horns sure that if in 2008 defeated John McCain, no reboot there would be no US-Russian relations would get a very intense character. There would be no new treaty CHB (Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms), which was signed in 2010, there would be Russia's WTO accession would not have occurred changing the pitch of the Russian-American dialogue.
Achievements restart fairly well known, however, since last year, the process of Russian-American relations has stalled. At the forefront started out differences and disagreements. In the United States began a campaign of criticism rigid internal and foreign policy of the Russian Federation. The tone in this company asked Republicans, who said that Russia for the United States is a geopolitical enemy №1.
Obama's victory in the election means continuity of policy. According to latest information, the Committee on Rules of the House of Representatives on November 13 is going to consider a bill to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment restricting trade with Russia. The site of the Committee on Rules of Procedure states that a bill to repeal the discriminatory amendment and the "Magnitsky Act" combined into one document.
According to Sergei Rogov, "Magnitsky Act" was passed in order to find any legislative instrument that would put Russia in its place. "Republicans in the House of Representatives approved its version of the" Magnitsky Act ", which is different from the Senate. In the Senate version it comes to drawing up "black lists" and the adoption of Senate sanctions against violators of human rights around the world, and in the embodiment of the House of Representatives in question only of Russia ", - said the head of the Institute of USA and Canada. He added that if after a few weeks of the House of Representatives will take "Magnitsky Act", but did not repeal the Jackson -Venika, it would mean quite serious consequences, we can expect a reaction from the Russian side.
Sergei Rogov believes that early next year, the Obama administration has put forward a new agenda for US-Russian relations. He did not rule out that there will be issues related to the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in 2014. Since neither Russia nor the United States are interested in to the Taliban came to power, to Afghanistan again became a hotbed of radical Islamic terrorism, it may be put forward proposals for deeper cuts in nuclear weapons to the level of 1,000 warheads.
Arms reduction factor of 1.5 means that the Americans will seek to limit not only strategic nuclear weapons, but also tactical. Rogov argues that Russia's position will involve linking the issue of reducing nuclear weapons and missile defense.
He fears that the US missile defense program in the future will lead to intercept Russian strategic ballistic missiles, which will lead to a violation of the strategic balance. If we manage to reach a compromise on missile defense, that in 2014 there will be new agreement as a legal and political nature. He believes that the abolition of the Jackson-Vanik amendment and Russia's WTO accession should contribute to the expansion of Russian-US trade and investment processes.
Volume of US-Russian trade in the last year for the first time exceeded 40 billion US dollars, which is certainly less than trade with Europe or China, but still looks impressive.
Obama's victory in this election means continuity of what has been done in previous years, it will attempt to develop a new agenda, but Rogov does not believe that Russia and the United States are to develop serious crises in 2008.
US relations with the CIS countries
Americans are an active policy in the CIS countries. Under Bush, this policy was characterized by the game with the "zero-sum", attempts have been made to enhance the influence due to the displacement of Russia, actively promoted the idea of acceptance into NATO of Ukraine and Georgia. The Obama administration is very calm reaction to the coming to power in Ukraine Yanukovych after the departure of Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, who enjoyed the support of the United States. With regard to the adoption of Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, Rogov believes that words, this idea will be proclaimed, but real steps to put it into practice, will not be done.
On the Iranian issue, we could become allies
The Obama administration does not want to start a new war in the Middle East. According to Sergei Rogov, there are different opinions on this issue. For example, Robert Gates, former US Secretary of Defense, said that to stop Iran's nuclear program does not succeed, it can only drop a few years, but if the use of military force, the Iranian nuclear program would be military in nature. His role in this regard could play Israel. Option Israeli attack on Iran does not exclude Rogov. Although the current developments in Syria can play a moderating role for Israel. As a result of the civil war in Syria may come to power radical forces and established something like the Libyan regime. And this is for Israel far more serious threat than the Assad regime.
The Obama administration is interested in Russia to support a political solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. He was confident that if the political decision is reached by excluding Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, the Americans will not be a reason for the deployment of strategic missile defense system in Europe. It links the Iranian problem with nuclear arms reduction, which will lead to a compromise on missile defense.
Obama ready to close their eyes on the internal situation in Russia to reach a compromise on arms?
Sergei Rogov believes it is unlikely that it can count on. And the Obama administration and the Republicans, and Secretary Clinton after the elections to the State Duma gave a pretty tough assessment of what is happening in Russia. Therefore, he believes that "Magnitsky Act" is likely to be adopted.
The administration of President and key politicians understand that the United States limited possibilities to influence the development of internal political processes in Russia and China. Despite the fact remains that Obama for a second term, expect more of a change in government. After the election, Hillary Clinton announced his resignation as Secretary of State, because it wants to run for the presidency in 2016. Leaves US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, there will be other players.
Among the candidates for the post of Secretary of State have been named US ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, as well as the candidacy of the head of the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs John Kerry. Horns do not think that if appoint Susan Rice, hot champion of human rights in Syria and Libya, it will determine the diplomacy in its relations with Russia and dramatically change its rhetoric.
Will America to negotiate with China?
In connection with the advent of the new leadership in China, the new balance of power in the United States will be very important. In the US, with a very very suspicious of the growing economic strength and modernization of the Chinese armed forces. They recognize the prospect of turning China into the second superpower.
In America still happy that the Soviet Union disappeared, and the emergence of approximately equal to the power of the opponent did not please the Americans. Line of the Obama administration - a search for an agreement with China on American terms.
Mitt Romney has taken a harder line against the country. According to Rogoff, if he became president, the first day of the declared China a currency manipulator. After that he went to the use of serious economic sanctions against China.
In connection with the ongoing advances in the Obama administration goes soft rhetoric in relations with China, which took place in the past. This year, first used such language in official documents as "... a potential US adversaries such as Iran, China ...". In the pre-election debates Romney bent his line against the Chinese as enemies, but Obama spoke about China as a rival with which it is necessary to negotiate.
There are a number of problems between China and the United States, this applies to Taiwan, Tibet, human rights violations and others. Looms major changes in the military balance in China and the United States. Parity US made almost 50 years ago, no one doubts its military superiority. As for China and America, between them has never been a military parity. 60 years ago, America was at war with China in Korea and is no longer willing to fight with him in the ground war.
In China, and is now developing nuclear weapons, and conventional. He demonstrates his achievements in space and cyberspace, causing very great concern the United States. Many Republicans believe that it is time to start to contain China. Democrats prefer not to rush, but agree that if the parties fail to agree, it will be necessary to remove containment with China.
This year, the Pentagon announced that the center of gravity of the military policy is transferred to the Asia-Pacific region. Indeed, currently 8 of 14 US submarines are located in the Pacific Ocean. Whereas previously the majority of strategic forces was aimed at Russia, now - to China.
In relations between China and America, there is economic interdependence. According to Rogoff, these countries are in the field of mutual economic destruction. Dependence is such that if we refuse to buy cheap Chinese goods and Chinese loans to lose (and the US budget is largely financed by China buying US government obligations), it will hit the US economy. And if China will not sell your product, what to do with accumulated US dollars? He is their only burn. This is a constraint that prevents drift towards confrontation.